Predicting Boise Market Prices

In order to make an educated guess where market prices are headed, we need a few pieces of information:

• Historical Price Levels


• Current Price Levels


• Supply & Demand

In order to figure out where the market is heading, we need to first figure out where it has been. The U.S. Housing Index has measured average United States home prices for the last 120 years. We can combine that data with historical local prices to get an idea of where prices tend to level out in the LONG run.

Current Price Levels

We can obtain current price levels easily enough by looking at recent sales data from the Intermountain Multiple Listing service. We can extrapolate data at the region, county, city, and even neighborhood levels.

Supply & Demand

When the housing supply increases faster than the demand for those houses, prices will fall. Likewise, prices will rise if the demand increases proportianately faster than the supply. Prices are ultimately determined by the RATIO of supply to demand.

Market Equilibrium

The housing market reaches a point of equilibrium or balance when prices are neither falling nor rising. We can look at historical sales data to see 1) when prices held constant and 2) what the ratio of supply to demand was at that point in time. We can then compare it to current ratios to help us make an educated guess whether prices will rise, fall, or hold constant.

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